环球通视预测明年中国制造业产值有望超过美国

US MANUFACTURING CROWN SLIPS

环球通视预测明年中国制造业产值有望超过美国

The US remained the world's biggest manufacturing nation by output last year, but is poised to relinquish this slot in 2011 to China – thus ending a 110-year run as the number one country in factory production.

去年，美国在制造业产出方面仍领衔世界，但看来将在2011年把头号地位让给中国，从而结束美国在工厂产出方面连续110年雄居全球首位的历史。

The figures are revealed in a league table being published on Monday by IHS Global Insight, a US-based economics consultancy.

这些数据来自美国经济咨询公司环球通视(IHS Global Insight)周一发表的榜单。

Last year, the US created 19.9 per cent of world manufacturing output, compared with 18.6 per cent for China, with the US staying ahead despite a steep fall in factory production due to the global recession.

去年，美国在全球制造业产出中占19.9%，而中国占18.6%。尽管全球经济衰退导致美国工厂产出大幅下降，但该国仍保持了领先。

That the US is still top comes as a surprise, since in 2008 – before the slump of the past two years took hold – IHS predicted it would lose pole position in 2009.

美国仍排在首位这一事实令人意外，因为IHS在2008年（在过去两年的经济低迷肆虐之前）就预测，美国将在2009年失去榜首位置。

However, a relatively resilient US performance kept China in second place, says IHS, which predicts that faster growth in China will deny the US the top spot next year.

不过，IHS表示，美国相对强韧的表现使中国保持在第二位。该公司现在预测，中国较快的增长明年将使美国让出头把交椅。

The US became the world's biggest manufacturer in the late 1890s, edging the then-incumbent – Britain – into the number two position.

19世纪90年代末，美国成为全球最大的制造国，使原本占据首位的英国退居第二。

Hal Sirkin, head of the global operations practice at Chicago-based Boston Consulting Group, said the US should not despair too much at the likelihood that it would lose the global crown in manufacturing to China.

总部位于芝加哥的波士顿咨询公司(Boston Consulting Group)全球运营活动主管哈尔·西尔金(Hal Sirkin)表示，对于把制造业皇冠让给中国的可能性，美国不应太过绝望。

“If you have a country with four times the population of the US and a tenth of the wages, it is fairly obvious they will pull ahead at some time in productive capabilities,“ he said.

“如果有一个国家，人口是美国的四倍，而工资仅为美国的十分之一，那就相当显然：他们将在某个时候在生产能力上领先，”他表示。

Last year, according to IHS, goods output by the US totalled $1,717bn, ahead of China at $1,608bn.

根据IHS的数据，去年美国商品产出总计1.717万亿美元，高于中国的1.608万亿美元。

However in 2011, on the basis of IHS's estimates, China's factory output will come to $1,870bn, a fraction ahead of the projected US figure for the year.

然而，根据IHS的估算，2011年中国的工厂产出将达到1.870万亿美元，略高于美国明年的预测数字。

If China does become the world's biggest manufacturer, it will be a return to the top slot for a nation which – according to economic historians – was the world's leading country for goods production for more than 1,500 years up until the 1850s, when Britain took over for a brief spell, mainly due to the impetus of the industrial revolution.

如果中国真的成为全球最大制造国，那将是它重新坐上头把交椅——按照经济历史学家的说法，在长达1500多年的时间内，中国曾一直在商品产出方面领衔世界，直到19世纪50年代才被英国短暂超越。当时英国的推动力主要是工业革命。

The IHS figures are worked out on the basis of current-year output numbers, translated into dollars, with no adjustments for inflation. If the figures are calculated in inflation-adjusted, constant price terms, then I HS believes that the US will keep its top role in manufacturing for a little longer.

上述IHS数据是在当前年度产出基础上计算得出的，转换为美元，未经通胀调整。his认为，若在经过通胀调整的不变价格基础上计算，美国保住制造业榜首地位的时间还要略长一些。

On an inflation-adjusted basis, which is based on a forecast that US inflation will be lower than that in China over the next few years, China is forecast to take over the number one position in manufacturing in 2013-14.

经通胀调整后（这里依据的预测是，未来几年美国的通胀率将低于中国），预计中国将在2013-14年登上制造业榜首。

According to the IHS numbers, world manufacturing output last year came to $8,638bn (€6,979bn, £5,825bn) or 16.7 per cent of global gross domestic product.

根据IHS的数据，去年世界制造业产出总计8.638万亿美元，占全球国内生产总值(GDP)的16.7%。

译者/和风

本文摘自FT中文网