美联储下调对美国经济前景预测

Fed moves towards monetary easing

美联储下调对美国经济前景预测

The US Federal Reserve on Tuesday took a first step towards easing monetary policy, as it downgraded its view of the economic outlook amid rising fears that the US could face a “double-dip” recession.

周二，美联储(Fed)向放松货币政策迈出了第一步。在人们日益担忧美国可能面临“双底”衰退之际，美联储下调了对经济前景的看法。

Meeting in Washington, Fed monetary policymakers agreed to begin reinvesting proceeds from expiring mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasuries, thereby preventing a natural shrinking of the $2,300bn balance sheet the US central bank built up during the recession.

在华盛顿召开的会议上，美联储货币政策制定者同意开始将到期的抵押贷款支持证券所得，再投资于较长期的国债，从而阻止央行在经济衰退期间积累的2.3万亿美元资产负债表自然缩水。

The move signals a significant shift in thinking at the Fed, which only a few months ago was tilting towards tightening monetary policy in order to fend off inflation as the economic recovery gathered strength.

此举标志着美联储思路的重大转变——仅仅几个月前，随着经济日益复苏，美联储还倾向于收紧货币政策以抵御通胀。

But on Tuesday, Fed officials significantly downgraded their economic outlook, saying the “pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months”

但在周二，美联储官员大幅调低了其对美国经济前景的预测，表示“近几个月产出和就业复苏的步伐已有所放缓”。

The Fed added that the pace of the recovery was likely to be “more modest” in the near term than was anticipated.

美联储补充称，近期复苏的步伐可能比预期的“更加温和”。

The reinvestment of proceeds from expiring MBS does not in itself represent an easing of monetary policy, since it simply allows the size of the Fed's balance sheet to remain steady. And the decision could be reversed relatively easily by the Fed if the economy improves over the course of the next few months.

将到期的抵押贷款支持证券所得再投资，本身并不代表着放松货币政策，因为它只是让美联储资产负债表规模保持稳定。如果未来几个月经济好转，美联储可以相对轻松地逆转该决定。

But it does signal that the bias of monetary policy has decisively shifted away from tightening towards easing – a potential precursor to large-scale asset purchases like those carried out during the financial crisis if, on the contrary, economic conditions deteriorate.

但它的确标志着货币政策倾向从收紧明确转向放松——如果经济形势恶化，美联储接下来可能会像金融危机期间那样，进行大规模的资产购买。

Interest rates were kept at their current target range of 0-0.25 per cent, and the Fed maintained its pledge to hold them there for an “extended period”.

美联储将利率保持在目前0-0.25%的目标区间，并承诺“在较长时期内”保持利率不变。

Last month, Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman told Congress there was “unusual uncertainty” surrounding the US economic outlook, which has been hit by the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the sluggish pace of private-sector job creation and a persistently weak housing market. Growth in gross domestic product slowed from an annualised rate of 3.7 per cent in the first quarter to 2.4 per cent in the second quarter, and some economists are expecting it to decelerate further in late 2010.

上月，美联储主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)向国会表示，美国经济前景存在“异常不确定性”。美国经济受到欧洲主权债务危机、私人部门就业复苏迟缓和住房市场持续疲弱的打击。美国国内生产总值(GDP)年化增长率从一季度的3.7%放缓至二季度的2.4%，一些经济学家预测今年晚些时候经济增长将进一步放缓。

译者/君悦

本文转载自FT中文网